ITS launches Prediction Market
From asset prices to pricing event probabilities. The initial lineup includes options linked to Bitcoin, SpaceX and central bank decisions in Kazakhstan and the U.S.
The international trading platform ITS is launching Prediction Market – a new type of exchange-traded contract on the platform that allows market participants to take positions on the outcomes of future events.
The initial lineup includes four event options linked to Bitcoin, SpaceX, the base rate of the National Bank of Kazakhstan and the U.S. Federal Reserve rate. ITS plans to expand the lineup over time by adding new events, markets and scenarios.
Traditionally, investors build their strategies around how they expect the price of an asset – a stock, currency, commodity or other instrument – to move. Prediction Market takes this one step further by allowing investors to take a position not on a price movement, but on the probability of a specific event.
A central bank decision, an asset reaching a certain price level or another predefined scenario can be priced by the market in its own right. The price of an event option is determined through trading and reflects market participants’ collective assessment of the probability of the relevant outcome.
Event options also allow investors to manage event risk separately. Even an event with a relatively low probability can have a significant impact on portfolio value. Prediction Market allows investors to take a separate position on such a scenario with a predetermined payoff.
“The launch of Prediction Market marks an important milestone in the development of ITS’s product offering and the region’s financial infrastructure. Financial markets have long traded asset prices. Today, we are adding another dimension – the ability to trade event probabilities. Investors gain a simple tool to express their view of the future, while the market gains a new mechanism for forming a collective view of that future. Bitcoin, SpaceX and central bank decisions are only the beginning. In the future, such contracts could cover a wide range of events and scenarios – from macroeconomic indicators and commodity markets to corporate events,” said Kurmet Orazayev, CEO of ITS.
How Prediction Market works
Each event option is based on a specific question about a future event, with two possible outcomes: either the condition is met or it is not.
Until the settlement date, the option can be freely traded on the market. Its price ranges from $0.01 to $0.99 and is determined by supply and demand.
The option price can be interpreted as the market’s assessment of the probability of the relevant outcome: the higher the price, the greater the probability market participants collectively assign to the condition being met.
At expiration, if the condition is met, the option’s settlement value will be $1; if not, it will be $0.
This structure makes a complex market scenario clear and transparent. Participants do not need to purchase the underlying asset or construct a complex combination of instruments: they can take a separate position on the outcome they are interested in.
The first four event options
ITS is initially launching four event options:
- Bitcoin – whether the price of Bitcoin will be above the specified reference level;
- SpaceX – whether the price of SPCX will be above the specified reference level;
- National Bank of Kazakhstan rate – whether the base rate will exceed 16.75%;
- U.S. Federal Reserve rate – whether the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate set by the FOMC will be above 3.75%.
The initial lineup covers different types of events – from movements in the prices of digital and corporate assets to central bank decisions.
Trading in event options is being launched under FinTech Lab – AFSA’s special regulatory regime for introducing new financial instruments. ITS has received approval from AFSA to launch event options under FinTech Lab.
Trading began on September 8, 2026, at the third annual ITS Ideas 2026 conference, held as part of Astana Finance Days, with representatives of the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC) taking part in the launch.
“We have been working towards this launch for a long time. Thanks to the ITS team, we studied the experience of other financial centres and looked at how different jurisdictions approach derivatives markets and prediction markets. Now this launch has happened. Naturally, the ITS team has done an excellent job. We wish them every success. At the same time, we always keep in mind how investors should be protected,” said Vladimir Savov, Chief Markets Officer at the Astana Financial Services Authority (AFSA).
About ITS
ITS is a trading platform operating under the jurisdiction of the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC). ITS offers investors more than 3,200 global market instruments listed in the U.S. and Kazakhstan. Among the unique products co-developed by ITS are exchange-traded funds based on proprietary indexes, as well as the opportunity to trade shares of companies going public before the start of trading in New York.
In 2025, ITS achieved record results: total trading volume exceeded $14 billion, 70 times the 2024 figure. The number of investors with access to trading exceeded 1.2 million. The platform hosts 23 participants from seven countries: Kazakhstan, Armenia, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Kyrgyzstan, Oman and South Africa.
ITS clients are professional securities market participants from Kazakhstan and other countries – financial intermediaries accredited or registered with the AIFC. Retail and corporate investors gain access to trading through financial intermediaries – brokers and banks.
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